Difference between revisions of "2022 SSMO Speed Round Problems/Problem 1"
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==Problem== | ==Problem== | ||
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− | + | Bobby is bored one day and flips a fair coin until it lands on tails. Bobby wins if the coin lands on heads a positive even number of times in the sequence of tosses. Then the probability that Bobby wins can be expressed in the form <math>\tfrac mn</math>, where <math>m</math> and <math>n</math> are relatively prime positive integers. Find <math>m+n</math>. | |
− | <cmath>2^2 + 2^{ | + | |
− | + | ==Solution 1== | |
+ | Note that the first two flips must be tails, which occurs with a probabilty of <math>\left(\tfrac12\right)^2=\frac14</math>th. Assuming the first two are tails, let <math>x</math> be the probability Bobby wins. Note that the coin must land an even or one more than an even number of times (when first flip is tails), meaning <math>x+\tfrac12 x=1\implies x=\tfrac23.</math> So, our answer is <cmath>\left(\frac14\right)\left(\frac23\right)=\frac16\implies1+6=\boxed{7}.</cmath> | ||
+ | |||
+ | ~pinkpig | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Solution 2== | ||
+ | |||
+ | Consider the probability <math>P(</math> win <math>)</math> as the sum of the probabilities of all sequences where Bobby wins: | ||
+ | <math>P(</math> win <math>)=P(2</math> heads and then 1 tails <math>)+P(4</math> heads and then 1 tails <math>)+</math> <math>P(6</math> heads and then 1 tails <math>)+\ldots</math> | ||
+ | |||
+ | For any sequence with <math>2 k</math> heads followed by a tail, the probability is: | ||
+ | <cmath> | ||
+ | \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{2 k} \times\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)=\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{2 k+1} | ||
+ | </cmath> | ||
+ | |||
+ | We sum this for <math>k=1,2,3, \ldots</math> : | ||
+ | <cmath> | ||
+ | P(\text { win })=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{2 k+1} | ||
+ | </cmath> | ||
+ | |||
+ | Factor out the constant term <math>\frac{1}{2}</math> : | ||
+ | <cmath> | ||
+ | P(\text { win })=\frac{1}{2} \sum_{k=1}^{\infty}\left(\frac{1}{4}\right)^k | ||
+ | </cmath> | ||
+ | |||
+ | This is a geometric series with the first term <math>a=\left(\frac{1}{4}\right)</math> and common ratio | ||
+ | <cmath> | ||
+ | r=\left(\frac{1}{4}\right) | ||
+ | </cmath> | ||
+ | <cmath> | ||
+ | \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} r^k=\frac{a}{1-r}=\frac{\frac{1}{4}}{1-\frac{1}{4}}=\frac{\frac{1}{4}}{\frac{3}{4}}=\frac{1}{3} | ||
+ | </cmath> | ||
+ | |||
+ | Thus: | ||
+ | <cmath> | ||
+ | P(\text { win })=\frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{3}=\frac{1}{6} | ||
+ | </cmath> | ||
+ | |||
+ | The probability <math>P(</math> win) can be expressed as: | ||
+ | <cmath> | ||
+ | \frac{1}{6} | ||
+ | </cmath> | ||
+ | |||
+ | In this case, <math>m=1</math> and <math>n=6</math>. Therefore, <math>m+n=1+6=7</math>. | ||
+ | Thus, the value of <math>m+n</math> is: | ||
+ | <cmath> | ||
+ | \boxed{\text{7}} | ||
+ | </cmath> |
Latest revision as of 16:59, 13 September 2025
Problem
Bobby is bored one day and flips a fair coin until it lands on tails. Bobby wins if the coin lands on heads a positive even number of times in the sequence of tosses. Then the probability that Bobby wins can be expressed in the form , where
and
are relatively prime positive integers. Find
.
Solution 1
Note that the first two flips must be tails, which occurs with a probabilty of th. Assuming the first two are tails, let
be the probability Bobby wins. Note that the coin must land an even or one more than an even number of times (when first flip is tails), meaning
So, our answer is
~pinkpig
Solution 2
Consider the probability win
as the sum of the probabilities of all sequences where Bobby wins:
win
heads and then 1 tails
heads and then 1 tails
heads and then 1 tails
For any sequence with heads followed by a tail, the probability is:
We sum this for :
Factor out the constant term :
This is a geometric series with the first term and common ratio
Thus:
The probability win) can be expressed as:
In this case, and
. Therefore,
.
Thus, the value of
is: